Our plan to meet NSW energy consumers needs

2025 IIO Report

The 2025 IIO report sets an ambitious course to meet NSW’s energy infrastructure objectives, calling on industry to bring forward innovative, community-supported projects that can deliver clean, reliable energy at scale and on time. With built in flexibility into its tender and planning approach, ASL responds in real time to market conditions to help deliver the renewable energy transition.

Key findings of the 2025 IIO report

• Coal-fired power stations retirement uncertainty: The scheduled retirement of Eraring Power Station and the possibility of early closures elsewhere highlight the need for flexible, responsive planning.
• Demand is changing fast: Growth in data centres and consumer energy resources (CER) is adding pressure to deliver firmed renewable energy quickly and coordinate local supply.
• The IIO responds: The 2025 IIO report deliberately leans into ambition, setting a bold pathway to meet NSW’s energy objectives and unlock benefits for consumers. The 10-year tender plan is designed to drive delivery at scale and speed, while responding dynamically to changing market conditions.
• CIS integration underway: NSW generation tenders are currently being delivered under the Australian Government's Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), which has an allocation of 7.1 GW of new capacity for NSW.
• LTESA tenders to resume: Once NSW’s CIS allocation is met, ASL will recommence LTESA tenders to continue supporting the project pipeline, with commencement anticipated in Q2 2026.
• More flexible legislation: Amendments to the EII Act and Regulation now allow ASL to base its authorisation decisions for REZ network infrastructure projects on the IIO Report, allowing for a faster regulatory approvals process for these projects.
• New 2034 storage target: The IIO identifies a need for a 42 GWh of long duration storage infrastructure by 2034, exceeding the current minimum objective of 28 GWh by 2034.
• System reliability: the IIO responds to a direction received by the NSW Minister for Energy to deliver a tender for 500 MW of firming infrastructure, to be opened in Q4 2025, to address a forecast energy shortfall in summer 2027/28.
• Transmission remains a priority: Delays in REZ infrastructure have underscored the need for further upgrades to unlock additional hosting capacity and support large-scale generation.
• Momentum continues: Construction has begun on the Central-West Orana REZ, the Hunter-Central Coast REZ has been authorised, and a tender for South West REZ access rights has demonstrated growing market confidence.

NSW Generation Investment Outlook

The new NSW Generation Investment Outlook (NSW GIO), published for the first time, complements the IIO report by assessing how projects are progressing through approvals, financing and construction. The NSW GIO helps ASL forecast delivery timelines and adjust tenders to reflect real market conditions. This report will be updated regularly and provide a dynamic tool to guide tender planning between IIO reports, ensuring investment stays aligned with the practical and commercial realities facing investors.

The NSW GIO finds:

• A healthy pipeline of over 50 GW of proposed generation capacity in NSW, including 13 GW of projects already with development approval.
• There is sufficient capacity in the pipeline to meet the minimum objectives.
• Current project lead times won’t be fast enough to meet the 16 GW ambition unless roadblocks are addressed.

2023 IIO Report

The 2023 IIO Report shows a continuation of large investment opportunities in NSW to achieve the State’s infrastructure investment objectives to 2030 and beyond.

IIO Report updates

Updates since the Draft 2023 IIO Report

• Generation infrastructure: the final Development Pathway for generation is similar to the draft. The modelled construction of generation infrastructure shows a linear trajectory from now to 2030, and the 10-Year Plan continues to show the investment opportunity with consistent tenders for long-term energy service agreements for generation.
• Long-duration storage infrastructure: the final Development Pathway for long-duration storage is similar to the draft. The modelled construction of long-duration storage infrastructure is back-ended to 2030, and the 10-Year Plan shows that ASL will tender earlier to test cost assumptions and mitigate delivery risk associated with lead times.
• Firming infrastructure: the final Development Pathway for firming has changed compared to the draft. Consistent with notice to market associated with Tender Round 2, the firming target increased from 375 MW to 930 MW, with 1,075 MW ultimately awarded. There is now no additional modelled requirement until the mid-2030s.

Updates since the Final 2023 IIO Report

• Two important updates have been issued since the Final 2023 IIO Report was published, related to the Q2 2024 and Q4 2024 generation infrastructure tenders. You can find the latest update here.

The 2023 IIO Report shows over 46% of the minimum objective has been achieved for generation with 15,600 GWh / 5,790 MW added since November 2019. Outcomes from Tender 1 and 3 have helped in securing almost 600 MW, of the 2 GW minimum for long-duration storage. Separately, Tender 2 has secured 1 GW of new firming capacity, which increases system reliability, particularly in the short term.